Field note · 21 May 2026
The retire condition
A scenario map needs a sentence that tells you the page is finished, including the weeks when nothing dramatic happens.
The maps that linger too long are the ones with paths and no ending. Hold, break, maybe a target written with too much confidence — and then the page stays on the desk for a month because nothing ‘official’ happened. The retire condition is the sentence that gives the page permission to be done.
For a break path, retirement is often a close beyond the level you named, on the timeframe you actually watch. An intraday stab does not retire a daily map. For a hold path, retirement can be a close back through the level after the hold was supposed to have defended it. Write the timeframe in the sentence. ‘Beyond the level’ without a close or a timeframe is how arguments start with yourself on Thursday night.
The path people skip is drift. Drift means price never leaves the zone between two levels long enough to choose. That outcome retires a map written for a decision. It does not retire your interest in the market. It retires the page, so the next page can be honest about a smaller range. In reviews, this is the line clients most often left blank, then described as ‘nothing happened’.
We do not write price targets as promises. A path can name the next opposing level already on the ladder, because that level was earned the same way as the others. Calling it a destination the market owes you is a different kind of sentence, and it does not go on the map.
When you come back for a Scenario Map Review, the retire condition is read before any new mark is added. If it triggered and you kept the page anyway, that is the lesson. If it never triggered, the map may still be alive — and you should be able to show the sentence that says so.